How long will the market down turn last?

How long will this market take to recover? 3 month? 6 month? a year? 5? a generation? Where can we look for hints of recovery?

The stock market has taken a beating, when some stock will bounce will depend on the true value of the assets. Seems simple. At the height of the tech bubble the Nasdaq was just at 5000, since then it dropped and today closed at just under 1500. Its Simple, the true value of the tech companies was not there, the bubble burst and never really closed. The massive drop will take a decade to recover from and that is normal. Truth is some assets never recover after a bubble. Think about it, did the Tulip industry ever recover out of the tulip trade bubble? Never.

Value of companies after all depends on sales, and sales really depend on consumer confidence. So the answer to when will stocks in particular and the economy in general will recover is to look for signs of increased consumer confidence.

Professor Abdul Rahman, investor, author, professor, super smart man, told our MBA class once and so far he has been right. One clear way of gauging market performance is by watching next seasons fashion shows. If you see short cut, skin, bright colors, invest. People are going to be in a good mood and are going to be spending. When you see conservative fashion, plain colors, long cuts, get out.

And so it was with great concern when I saw @coutorture tweet that Forever 21 was introducing depression era clothing, and indeed we had one of the worst winters in the market. So what does the future hold, the spring threads say, stay out of the market. Take a peek http://content.coutorture.com/1986258

Lets hope to see some bright colors for the fall… Keep your eye on Milan not on Wall street.